Perception Gap
The measurable distance between what we believe the other side thinks and what they actually think. The gap is almost always larger than reality — and it widens with the very media we use to stay informed.
There is a number that changed how I read my own certainty. When researchers at More in Common asked Americans to estimate how extreme the other party's views were, both sides guessed wrong by roughly double — Democrats and Republicans each imagined about 55 percent of the other side held extreme positions, when the real figure was closer to 30 (Perception Gap, 2019). We are not just divided. We are wrong about how divided we are, in a consistent direction.
The detail that stays with me is what made the gap worse. It was not apathy. People who reported following the news most closely had larger perception gaps, not smaller. So did people with more education, on the progressive side. The instruments we trust to inform us were, on this measure, miscalibrating us.
I hold this carefully, because it is easy to weaponize into "everyone who disagrees with you is secretly reasonable," which is its own kind of flattening. The honest version is narrower: the average member of the other side is less extreme than the loudest member you encounter — and the feed shows you the loudest, because the loudest performs.
The countermeasure is almost embarrassingly small. Before assuming what they think, ask whether you are picturing the median person or the worst post you saw this week. Usually it is the post.
Also known as
Misperception Gap